Friday, December 2, 2011

Unemployment and Reality - Three Graphs

Courtesy of Derek Thompson at the Atlantic, here are a few datasets to keep in mind when reading today's news that unemployment had fallen to 8.6%.  (See the full article at www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/86-unemployment-the-good-the-bad-and-the-mysterious-in-the-jobs-report/249394/)


1.  The job growth from the recent recession has been, and remains, historically low.  While we may at some time reach a point that shows that we've clearly turned the corner on job growth, this is not it.


Screen Shot 2011-12-02 at 9.29.08 AM.png


2.  The vital figure, the ratio of employment to population, remains very low and has not shown an upturn historically comparable to prior downturns.


http://product.datastream.com/economics/gateway.aspx?guid=23068abf-b1c0-421d-9450-40581d19451f&chartname=US%20employment%20to%20population%20ratio&groupname=Employment&date=20111202&owner=ZRTN179&action=REFRESH


3.  If job recovery improves at a rate reasonably comparable to past experience (average monthly job creation for the best year in the 2000s), we'll be back at full employment in about 15 - 20 years.


Screen Shot 2011-12-02 at 10.02.56 AM.png

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